Lieberman's Death Greatly Exaggerated
Base10 has been amused by Democratic pundits commenting on the Lieberman-Lamont race in Connecticut. Cragg Hines notes a recent poll which gave Lamont a 13-point lead in the Democratic primary--largely because of the anti-war left and Lamont's lack of message other than being anti-Lieberman. Andrea Peyser characterized the senator as a "dead man running."

But is he really? The latest poll puts Lieberman with just a 6-point deficit going into tomorrow's primary. RCP commentators note that if Lieberman wins at least 40%, he would probably win the three-way race should he decide to run in the general election as an independent. This article notes a poll where he would trounce Lamont and win an outright majority in a three-way race.

What does this all mean for the Dems? Base10 thinks it hurts them either way. A leftist anti-war insurgency against moderate Democrat candidates would cause many moderate Democrats to drift even further left than they are now. This may help with the base, but will certainly not help in the general election and may destroy them in 2008. I think a Lieberman three-way win would hurt the Democrats even more. Bill Kristol on Fox News Sunday urged Lieberman to run as an independent should he lose the primary and recommended that if he lost he would be a good replacement for Donald Rumsfeld. (Transcript at RCP).
- posted by Base10 @ 11:39 AM