War in the Middle East
Base10 hasn't posted anything about the current war in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel but he has been following closely. In the latest news, Israeli forces made a limited ground incursion into Lebanese border territory and say they have destroyed an Iranian-manufactured long-range missile capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, Hezbollah rockets have hit the Israeli city of Haifa destroying a building and causing several injuries (and possibly casualties once the rubble is cleared). The international community--such as it is--is even talking about deploying UN forces to southern Lebanon to broker a cease-fire.

The crisis has even driven President Bush to use salty language. (It is ridiculous that this story is getting coverage in the national media).

Some observations:

• Israel has exercised incredible restraint by not firing into population centers and by actually warning non-combatants out of the areas they intend to strike. This as Hezbollah rockets are deliberately targeting civilians. This is particularly ironic as world leaders say Israel's response should be "proportionate." But the most ironic thing here is that Israel has a UN resolution on its side this time. Resolution 1559 established the so-called "blue line" and called for the disarming of Hezbollah--something Lebanon won't (or more realistically can't) do.


• Israel should not be satisfied with a return to the status quo ante. While outwardly claiming they will not stop until Hezbollah has been destroyed, Israel has privately been taking a position that they would accept a cease-fire if Hezbollah releases the soldiers it kidnapped on Wednesday and withdrew from the border which would then be occupied by Lebanese troops. This might be just the opportunity for Lebanon's fledgling democracy to live up to its obligation to disarm Hezbollah


• It is refreshing to see international condemnation for Hamas and Hezbollah (including even some Arab League countries). The G8 nations issued a statement condemning them both and putting the blame for the crisis squarely on their shoulders.


• Also refreshing is the explcit and wide-spread recognition that it is Syria and Iran that are pulling the strings here. The international community has finally come to the realization that the only way the peace process can go forward is by dealing with these regimes.


• It seems possible, but unlikely, that the conflict could widen to include Israeli airstrikes in Syria. There were some reports that Israel gave Syria a 72-hour deadline to secure the release of the hostages. (Base10's a little doubtful on this one--but notice how quiet the Syrians are being publicly).

Base10 hopes the soldiers are released unharmed and the crisis ends, but it cannot go back to the situation as it was. Hezbollah has to be taken out--with Syria and Iran next on the list.

UPDATE: Michael Oren makes the case (and a pretty good one) for an Israeli war against Syria. Ralph Peters questions Israel's will to fight. Joe Klein just doesn't get it.
- posted by Base10 @ 1:03 PM