No links for now, but Base10 was following events again today. IDF forces are massing on the border for what appears to be a big ground incursion. Some military commentators expect a pre-dawn attack into Lebanese territory.

Base10 thinks there are a lot of questions. First, to what extent did IAF air attacks degrade Hezbollah capabilities? Hezbollah, of course denies any damage. Israeli forces claim they have reduced their operational capacity by 50%. It is certain though, that Hezbollah's capabilities surprised the Israelis. They have much more sophisticated longer-range munitions than previously thought.

Second, what are Israel's intentions. Are they seeking to destroy Hezbollah or merely see it defanged? It is easy for Western pundits to say "destroy" but it would be much harder to caRry that out and it would risk the Lebanese government and a wider-ranging conflict with Syria and maybe Iran. Don't get me wrong. It may indeed be the time to do this. But let's all make sure we're on the same page.

Third, assuming Israel would be satisfied containing Hezbollah behind a twenty-mile buffer zone (as they did before), who would control this zone. The Lebanese military--50% shiite--may not be up to the task and UN peacekeepers usually bring nothing but. Israel has also signalled that it doesn't wish to remain there long-term. Tomorrow is going to be a big day.

- posted by Base10 @ 4:55 PM