Base10Blog
Monday, July 10, 2006
 
Japan To Go Nuclear?
The Korean missile situation seems intractable, but remember, the Japanese may be more willing to resurrect their military past when endangered than their European allies. China is really the key to the whole thing. They have an interest in propping up the North Korean regime and avoiding the chaos that would ensue at their borders should Kim fall. South Korea, of course, is more than willing to appease its unstable neighbor.

What's Japan's alternative? It seems to me, faced with the inability of the UN to do anything, Japan should threaten to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The US could say it was "regrettable" that Japan would be forced to do this but could otherwise block any Security Council action, much like the Russians and Chinese are doing in this case. Besides, with the third largest economy in the world, it seems unlikely that the UN could act against Japan and not against North Korea. A nuclear Japan would certainly get China's attention and possibly make it rethink their long-term strategic interests in the Korean peninsula. China would also certainly see the writing on the wall. If Japan goes nuclear, South Korea and Taiwan would certainly go too. This may be exactly the way that Japan is going. Maybe proliferation in this case would be more stabilizing.
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