Base10Blog
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
 
Myths About Iran
Mel Levine, Alex Turkeltaub and Alex Gorbansky have some interesting comments in WAPO about Iran and the efficacy of sanctions:
[W]hile Iran holds the world's second-largest reserves of oil and gas and is the fourth-largest oil producer, it is in fact a net importer of refined oil products, including gasoline. And internal consumption of oil products in Iran is growing by 5.2 percent a year, far faster than its ability to increase refining capacity. This means that the levels of imports necessary to make the Iranian economy function will only increase over time. Thus, sanctions that prevented Iran from importing, say, refined oil products, including gasoline, could bring its economy to a grinding halt. Perhaps more important, the subsequent shortages would disproportionately affect President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political base, the urban underclass and lower-middle class, as well as the military.

I'm not sure if I agree with Levine, et al, but it sure is nice that someone is thinking about what actually would happen in the event of sanctions.
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