Nuclear Iran?
James Robbins has some interesting analysis over at NRO about what could happen if Iran went nuclear and the worrisome trend by US analysts that this wouldn't be so bad:

I am not concerned about whether or not the Iranians will be deterred. I am worried that the United States will be deterred. Even if the Iranians never use their nuclear weapons, they will have made themselves immune from attack. That would be just fine if they were likely to mind their own business. However, Iran has a long track record of fomenting instability in the region, particularly through terrorist surrogates. Furthermore, the regime in power has made it clear that they are intent on increasing the threats to their neighbors, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia. They do not like us very much either.

Now add nuclear weapons to the equation. Forget the “nuke Tel Aviv” scenario, that is child’s play. Which is not to say they would not do it, in time they probably would. But the proponents of Middle East MAD are much too focused on the high end of the equation. Nuclear weapons are not most effective when lobbed between nuclear powers; they are best used as leverage to augment military actions in the conventional or unconventional realm by arming countries with the threat of escalation.

Interesting read.
- posted by Base10 @ 9:50 AM