Electoral politics in New York City is always interesting--and largely Democratic until someone breaks the mold. The Primaries are held a week after Labor day. This insures--what's the word?--minimal participation by all except the party faithful. This system works beautifully for a Democrat. The machine turns out the vote in early September and then once the general election comes, the five-to-one Democratic majority kicks in and you're a shoe-in.

My hats off also to the fellow who decided that the mayoral election must be an off-year affair. This way no Republican candidate could get a "coattail" effect from a popular Republican running for national office.

This system works beautifully for an entrenched Democrat. Except, the city has had a Republican mayor for the last twelve years. How did this happen? Easy, populist Republicans made the Democrats the victims of their own strategy. By minimizing participation in the primaries, politicians aspiring to the generally open Repuiblican ticket could get on the ballot in November. They dicovered that populism works in this city. While the Dems are fond of interest group politics, they have become incapable of getting up on a soapbox and promising crime reduction, lower taxes and schools that actually educate their children. Republican populism, as embodied by Giuliani and Bloomberg, have generally delivered on all three. (For the purpose of argument, we'll forgive Mayor Mike his tax increase in the wake of 9/11--and both men their ridiculous ignorance of the Police collective bargaining situation).

So while Democrats have tried to buy the necessary primary votes by promising the moon and stars to community groups and local political clubs, Republicans have appealed directly to the mass voter. By framing the contest in this light, the Republicans win.

Make no mistake though, it takes a Republican with quite a bit of stature to pull this off. Giuliani managed it with a prosecutor's backround and fiery rhetoric about crime. Throw in Dinkins' abject failure in Crown Heights and you have a winner. Like him or not, Bloomberg has brought a businessman's common sense to City Hall. While many people did not believe in the "millionaire mayor" early on, he has clearly been successful.

So what's going to happen? Ferrer and C. Virginia Fields are still playing yesterdays political race game. Gifford Miller and Anthony Weiner are lightweights--and each of them have been sucking up to the teacher's union in most ungentlemanly fashion lately. (Remember boys, Randi hasn't backed a winner in a long time).

In the end, it really doesn't matter what the Dems do. None of the Democrats possess the gravitas necessary to replace Mayor Mike. The only way Mike Bloomberg is not getting elected is if he's found in bed with a twelve-year old boy. (And in this city, he still might get elected)!

Base10 also gets a kick out of the ridiculous campaign commercials run by the Democrats. Did you know Ferrer shined shoes as a boy? I'm sure that reflects on your ability to lead a big city. Did you know Gifford Miller wants crime out of our schools? Shockingly original, that.

Base10's bold prediction: Fernando Ferrer wins the primary after a runoff with Gifford Miller. Bloomberg easily defeats Ferrer in the general election. Remember, this is an official prediction.

- posted by Base10 @ 1:45 PM