The Future of Palestine

There is a very thought-provoking piece by Bret Stephens in the Opinion Journal about the Paletinian elections. In case you haven't been following the news, Abu Mazen (aka Abu Abbas) won the election by a large majority. However, the victory was marred by relatively low voter turnout of about 30%. So the post-Arafat Palestine is official.

Abbas's election raises troubling questions. During the run-up to the polls, Abbas made some very strident statements calling Israel the "Zionist enemy" and promising a right of return to Paestinian refugees. Abbas was also seen campaigning with armed militants in Jenin, including one wanted for murder by Israel, and promised them protection from Israel. But many believe, including Stephens, that Abbas will lead to fundamental reform. President Bush has even noted that Abbas will be welcome at the White House.

I suppose that observers should hope for the best. Base10 believes that there is a long road ahead to take the Palestinian state into the mainstream. If Abbas is trully committed to this, he can start it down that road. How far down that road he gets is a different story. It seems obvious that some kind of civil war is going to happen in Gaza between Hamas and Fatah. Whether it will be long and bloody or short and decisive remains to be seen. Maybe the peace process can get back on track, but don't be surprised by setbacks.
- posted by Base10 @ 1:39 PM