Base10Blog
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
 
Getting Serious About Iraq
Michael Rubin at the American Enterprise Institute wants to know if we're ready to really do what is necessary to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis. He argues that Iran is using the same quite effective tactics in southern Iraq that it used in Lebanon. He cites example after example, such as this:
It is in the info-war that Washington has stumbled most severely. The U.S. operates in Iraq as if the country is a vacuum. Sheltered within the Green Zone, diplomats are oblivious to enemy propaganda. Resistance to occupation is Hezbollah's mantra. It is a theme both the Badr Corps and firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army adopted. Why then did Foggy Bottom acquiesce on May 22, 2003 to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483 which formalized U.S. and Britain as "occupying powers." What U.S. diplomats meant as an olive branch to pro-U.N. European allies was, in reality, hemlock. With the stroke of a pen, liberation became occupation: Al-Manar and Al-Alam barraged ordinary Iraqis with montages glorifying "resistance." They then highlighted U.S. fallibility with images of withdrawal from Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia.

Tehran has a formula for success in Iraq; Washington does not. Victory will require U.S. diplomats to recognize that any successful policy must include strategies not only to promote U.S. and Iraqi interests, but also to derail our adversaries' strategy. Iran's methods are clear. Less clear is U.S. resolve. The stakes in Iraq are high, and one side is playing for keeps. Are we?

Let's hope we are.
 
Stunning Ignorance of Basic Economic Principles
In a vein related to the last post, coinsider this story published a few days ago:

"Americans work more, seem to accomplish less" - Reuters.

Really? Let's look at what is masquerading as news these days. The article relates a "study" about worker productivity that basically claims today's workers are being pulled in so many different directions they are accomplishing less. Here's a quote:
Workers completed two-thirds of their work in an average day last year, down from about three-quarters in a 1994 study, according to research...

The biggest culprit is the technology that was supposed to make work quicker and easier, experts say. "Technology has sped everything up and, by speeding everything up, it's slowed everything down, paradoxically," said John Challenger, chief executive of Chicago-based outplacement consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.


But wait. Who did the research? Day-Timers Inc., an East Texas, Pennsylvania-based maker of organizational products.

Hmm. Might they have a little bias here? How did they do the "study" anyway?
Sixty percent of workers say they always or frequently feel rushed, but those who feel extremely or very productive dropped to 51 percent from 83 percent in 1994, the research showed.

Put another way, in 1994, 82 percent said they accomplished at least half their daily planned work but that number fell to 50 percent last year. A decade ago, 40 percent of workers called themselves very or extremely successful, but that number fell to just 28 percent.

"We think we're faster, smarter, better with all this technology at our side and in the end, we still feel rushed and our feeling of productivity is down," said Maria Woytek, marketing communications manager for Day-Timers, a unit of ACCO Brands Corp.

The latest study was conducted among a random sample of about 1,000 people who work at least part time. The earlier study surveyed some 1,300 workers.

I see. The "study" was a survey of workers. Base10 has no doubt that todays workers are put upon, but he has never met a working person who didn't feel put upon. In spite of their subjective feelings, American workers today are the most educated and productive workforce in the history of the world.

What do you get from the headline, "Americans work more, seem to accomplish less?" Well, for one, it feeds into the idea that America is in some sort of economic malaise--a theme popular with the media today. America's productivity is suffering, claims the media. It's probably Bush's fault, too. The headline is loaded, and the study is garbage.

What is the truth? Is America more productive now than in the past? Let's see, who would know that? How about the Federal Reserve? Check out this article published by the San Fransico Federal Reserve Bank:
The performance of productivity in the U.S. economy has delivered some big surprises over the last several years. One surprise was in the latter half of the 1990s, when productivity growth surged to average an annual rate of over 3%, more than twice as fast as the rate in the previous two decades. A bigger surprise has been the further ratcheting up of productivity growth since the most recent recession. Even with a slowing to below a 1-3/4% annual pace in the second half of last year, productivity growth averaged around 3.8% for the 2001 through 2004 period. That is an extraordinarily high number by historical standards. It also is well above the consensus view among economists, which is that trend growth of productivity is on the order of 2-1/2%. [Citations omitted.]

So, productivity growth is "extraordinarily high by historic standards." That took all of ten seconds to look up on Google (which may be one of the reasons for said growth). Maybe that Reuters reporter should have done the same.
 
Science and the Media
Michael Fumento has a great article in the NY Post about science reporting in the media. He points to--among other things--obvious bias on the part of scientific journals:
Last September, after Hurricane Katrina, activists in lab coats saw a grand opportunity to tie the exceptionally violent hurricane season to global warming. A study in Science declared, "A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5."

But the researchers simply cut off their data at 1970, though public statistics go back to 1850. Using the full data set would have reversed the conclusion. Why did the editors and peer-reviewers at both JAMA and Science not insist on use of the full data set? Because slicing off inconvenient data is a time-honored tool of advocacy science.

Editors can even ignore papers in their own publication if it serves their purpose. A report in a recent (Feb. 17) issue of Science uses a computer model to show that glaciers along the coast of Greenland are rapidly melting and leading to rapid sea level rise; the study (naturally) blames global warming. Yet, just three months earlier, Science published a study based on actual data that showed increasing snowfall in Greenland was leading to greater ice accumulations than previously measured, slowing Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise.

It's no surprise that scientific journals have a political agenda, bhe media should be our watchdog and report on it rather than blindly passing on partisanly manipulated data as "fact."
 
The Civil War That Wasn't
The media is seething with reports of the Iraqi civil war. Eleanor Clift on Sunday (or is that Friday when it's filmed?) suggested that Iraq was in the middle of a civil war. Except for one thing. There isn't one.

Ralph Peters reports from Bagdhad:
Last week, the terrorists scored a temporary win by bombing the Golden Mosque in Samarra. Retaliatory attacks pocked Iraq's urban landscapes, providing striking TV images. Starved for headlines, the global media declared a civil war.

But the Iraqis didn't sign up. Yes, there was "unrest." And a daytime curfew was imposed. But after an initial spate of bickering, Iraq's key leaders came together — as they could not have done under Saddam — to calm the situation.

More deaths and dangers lie ahead. Poor decisions made three years ago in Washington mean that we travel Baghdad's streets well-armed today. We never had enough troops at the bottom or sufficient integrity at the top. Now no honest voice would claim that America "owns" Iraq.

But that's less and less relevant. Ownership rightfully belongs to the Iraqis, and we've always believed that. Slowly but steadily, the better souls are taking responsibility for their own country. Setbacks frustrate us — but frustrate Iraqis even more.

Worried that we'll abandon them (a fear based on recent American history), many Iraqis sit on the fence in public. But they do not support the terrorists or insurgents. They want better lives, not more bombs.

What's most notable about the sectarian disturbances of the past week is what didn't happen: Extremists on both sides had a bash in the streets, but the general population didn't turn out. Iraqi security forces responded more effectively than they could have done even six months ago. Our own troops intervened, but at a lower pitch than in the past.

To the chagrin of the press, the country's leaders continue to muddle through. That may not sound inspiring, but it should. Well-intentioned men and women from each of the country's major constituencies are trying to find a formula for a new Iraq that works.

The Iraqi people deserve better than the cut-and-run rhetoric of Eleanor Clift and her left-wing comrades.
Monday, February 27, 2006
 
Victor Davis Hanson is Optimistic About Iraq
He sees it as the IED vs. democracy. Coming off a trip to Iraq, the good doctor is going with democracy:
First, through the use of improvised explosive devices (IED), assassinations, and suicide bombings, they hope to make the Iraqi hinterlands and suburbs appear so unstable and violent that the weary American public says “enough of these people” and calls home its troops before the country is stabilized. In such a quest, the terrorists have an invaluable ally in the global media, whose “if it bleeds, it leads” brand of journalism always favors the severed head in the street over the completion of yet another Iraqi school.

Second, the al Qaedists think they can attack enough Shiites and government forces to prompt a civil war. And indeed, in the world that we see on television, there is no such thing as a secular Iraq, an Iraqi who defines himself as an Iraqi, or a child born to a Shiite and Sunni. No, the country, we are told, is simply three factions that will be torn apart by targeted violence. Sunnis blow up holy places; Shiites retaliate; and both sides can then blame the Americans.

Third, barring options one and two, the enemy wishes to pay off criminals and thugs to create enough daily mayhem, theft, and crime to stop contractors from restoring infrastructure and thus delude the Iraqi public into believing that the peace would return if only the Americans just left.

Dr. Hanson thinks it's a curious war, as well.
It is an odd war, because the side that I think is losing garners all the press, whether by blowing up the great golden dome of the Askariya shrine in Samarra, or blowing up an American each day. Yet we hear nothing of the other side that is ever so slowly, shrewdly undermining the enemy.

The Iraqi military goes out now on about half the American patrols, as well as on thousands of their own. It is not the Fallujah brigade of early 2004 — rather, it is developing into the best trained and disciplined armed force in the Middle East. While progress in reestablishing the infrastructure necessary for increased electricity and oil production seems dismal, in fact, much has been finished that awaits only the completion of pipelines and transmission lines — the components most vulnerable to sabotage.

Let's hope the good doctor is right.
 
William Kristol Is Too
But as he writes in the Weekly Standard, he thinks it's time we get up and fight:
From Copenhagen to Samara, the radical Islamists are on the offensive. From Tehran to Damascus, the dictators are trying to regain the upper hand in the Middle East. From Moscow to Beijing, the enemies of liberal democracy are working to weaken the United States. Across the world, the forces of terror and tyranny are fighting back. Are we up to the challenge?

It's not clear that we are. Many liberals, here and in Europe, long ago lost the nerve to wage war--or even to defend themselves--against illiberalism. Parts of the conservative movement now seem to be losing their nerve as well. In response to an apparent clash of civilizations, they would retrench, hunker down, and let large parts of the world go to hell in a hand basket, hoping that the hand basket won't blow up in our faces.

Remember: The United States of America and its allies--regimes that seek to embody, or at least to move towards, the principles of decent, civilized, liberal democracy--did not seek this war. But we are at war, and we could lose it. Victory is not inevitable.

Kristol calls for action:
The least we can do at home is to demonstrate some moral seriousness that the moment demands. Moral seriousness in this case means political seriousness. Insist on going ahead with the ports deal so that Arab governments who have stood with us in the war on terror are not told to get lost when one of their companies acquires port management contracts in the United States. Make a real effort to destabilize Ahmadinejad in Iran. Do what it takes to defeat Zarqawi and secure Iraq. Stand with Denmark, and moderate Muslims, against the radical mob. This is no time for dishonorable retreat. It is time for resolve--and competence. After all, it would be most unfortunate if the administration summoned its nerve and charged ahead--only to meet the fate of Tennyson's Light Brigade!

Here, here. Let's not let the West go down without a fight.
 
WFB is Not.
William F. Buckley, on the other hand, believes that the mission in Iraq has failed. He writes:
One can't doubt that the American objective in Iraq has failed. The same edition of the paper quotes a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Reuel Marc Gerecht backed the American intervention. He now speaks of the bombing of the especially sacred Shiite mosque in Samara and what that has precipitated in the way of revenge. He concludes that “The bombing has completely demolished” what was being attempted — to bring Sunnis into the defense and interior ministries.

Our mission has failed because Iraqi animosities have proved uncontainable by an invading army of 130,000 Americans. The great human reserves that call for civil life haven't proved strong enough. No doubt they are latently there, but they have not been able to contend against the ice men who move about in the shadows with bombs and grenades and pistols.

The critical issue as he sees it now is whether we abandon our principles or not. WFB puts it much more eloquently than I ever could:
One of these postulates, from the beginning, was that the Iraqi people, whatever their tribal differences, would suspend internal divisions in order to get on with life in a political structure that guaranteed them religious freedom.

The accompanying postulate was that the invading American army would succeed in training Iraqi soldiers and policymkers to cope with insurgents bent on violence.

This last did not happen. And the administration has, now, to cope with failure. It can defend itself historically, standing by the inherent reasonableness of the postulates. After all, they govern our policies in Latin America, in Africa, and in much of Asia. The failure in Iraq does not force us to generalize that violence and antidemocratic movements always prevail. It does call on us to adjust to the question, What do we do when we see that the postulates do not prevail — in the absence of interventionist measures (we used these against Hirohito and Hitler) which we simply are not prepared to take? It is healthier for the disillusioned American to concede that in one theater in the Mideast, the postulates didn't work. The alternative would be to abandon the postulates. To do that would be to register a kind of philosophical despair. The killer insurgents are not entitled to blow up the shrine of American idealism.

Base10 does not believe the fight is over. As much as I admire Mr. Buckley, this time he's got it wrong. The Golden Mosque bombing did not result in the wholesale slaughter of Sunnis at the hands of Shiites. As a matter of fact, the Sunnis are apparently back at the table.
 
Alright, Alright!
I know, I know. Base10 promised some posts over the weekend. He didn't get to them. Actually, Base10 didn't get to much of anything over the weekend. Okay, he did watch the Olympics. He even refrained from looking up the winner in the men's short track 500m while Apolo Anton Ohno was racing at Mrs. Base10's request. Good for Ohno when he took the gold! Mrs. Base10 also insisted on tuning in to the always-sappy closing ceremonies last night.

While Ohno and his fellow speed skaters Chad Hedrick and Shanin Davis were winners, of course with winners, come losers. Just ask Bode Miller. I guess the joinbode.com website was maybe not such a good idea after all. Or as this blogger puts it:
As for Bode, the Bodeist, Mr. “I Work Out Harder Than Everyone, But Somehow Manage to Care Less, Because I’m Really Cool, and Quite Often Loaded”… well, let’s see.

Lost a medal in the downhill by fractions of a point after bragging about having a “few beers” and eating a late dinner near midnight before a noon event the next day.

Got DQ’d from the combined after leading, because he straddled a gate.

Then didn’t finish the Super G because he smashed into another gate, and nearly ran off into the woods.

How sweet, it is! We’ve got one more realistic shot for him to get a medal, and once he fails in that (and I’ll be rooting as hard as I can) then we can be done with him forever. Which I don’t think he’ll care much about either, since he said last week that “it’s other people that care about me winning medals.”

Yeah, like Nike, you douchebag. A company that’s sitting on a multi-million dollar marketing campaign for a guy who’s the Darko Milicic of skiing.

The only thing left is a DUI on the way back to the airport out of Italy, and don’t think it’s impossible to dream.

Base10 might not be that harsh on young Bode, but he has not been portraying himself as a role model of late.

In other sports news, the conference tournaments in college hoops get underway this week an the NCAA tournament selection event occurs a week from Sunday (CBS-Sportsline has a cool ticker). And remember, the first Mets exhibition game is Thursday at 1PM. Finally, in Jets news, there is still no word on Chad Pennington's fate. Though apparently, help for Chadwick may come from the most unlikeliest of places. Pennington will likely either redo his deal or be cut by Friday.
Friday, February 24, 2006
 
Work Bound

Base10 is on his way to work this morning on a quite chilly day in Gotham. While the sun is shining, there is a high wind advisory for the city and environs. Base10 has some work to o today so there will likely only be light blogging until tomorrow.

What's in store for the weekend? Base10 must engage in some needed studying for micro and macro over the weekend. He also must put up the website for the class he is teaching. In sports, the weekend will be dominated by the Olympics and college hoops. Base10 would like to catch the Munch exhibit over at MOMA if possible.


 
Jets News

Big, BIG news in the land o' the Jets. First, the much anticipated cap-room blood-letting began yesterday when the Jets released Ty Law, Jason Fabini, Jay Fiedler and a number of who-dat players. Rumor has it that C Kevin Mawae is on his way out as well. Meanwhile, Curtis Martin renegotiated his contract to give Gang Green some cap room while the organization placed the franchise tag on John Abraham again. Abraham is reportedly not happy. Base10 thinks this was done merely so that the Jets could get more for an Abraham trade and that he is definitely on the auction block. These events place even more pressure on Chad Pennington to redo his deal. He could play hardball, but really, what other team is going to sign him? His only leverage is the cap hit the Jets would take if they release him. I hope his agent understands that the fans expect a rebuilding year next season--with or without young Chadwick.

In any event, all of this is good news. Fans don't mind if you blow up the team so long as you have a plan to rebuild. All of these moves bode well for a team with a new plan.


 
When Your Best Just Isn't Good Enough

American skater/hotie Sasha Cohen fell during her final program and slipped to second place. The Japanese skater Shizuka Arakawa won the gold marking it the first time a Japanese figure skater has ever won gold. Sasha--Base10's new Olympic favorite--did win the silver.


Thursday, February 23, 2006
 
The Bigger Threat to Islam?
All of a sudden, the Danish cartoon wars is not important. Why? Well, it appears that some Islamic extremists has blown up and seriously damaged the so-called Golden Mosque in Samara, Iraq. Al Qaeda says that Iran and the provisional Iraqi government did it. Iran says that the US and Israel did it. Both assertions make me certain that either Iran or al Qaeda did it.

Where is the outrage on the Arab street? Where are the protests condemning al Qaeda? Where are the bans from Islamic clerics on associating with them? Where are the threats to boycott Arab countries that support terror? I guess that has to be saved for the cartoons.

This thing makes me sad. It's like when the Taliban blew up the statues of Buddha. It would be as if the Red Brigade blew up St. Peter's Basilica. Something like this is not only a crime against people, it's a crime against civilization itself.

Click here for a breakdown of Mid-East press reaction from the BBC.

Of course, the leftist press has already declared a civil war:
"Shiite fury explodes in Iraq; scores are killed" - IHT.

"Bodies pile up in morgues as Iraq spirals out of control" - Times Online.

"Iraq slides closer to sectarian war" - The Age.

This will no doubt be a real test for Iraqis, especially when unprincipled clerics like Muqtada "Fatso" al-Sadr will try to use this event to sieze power for themselves. I have faith, however, that the Iraqis will get though this.
 
Global Warming
Steven Hayward has an interesting article on the politics of global warning over at the Weekly Standard and why perhaps the UN shouldn't be in charge of studying it:
More and more, the [U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] is becoming an echo chamber for one point of view, and is closed to honest criticism from the outside. They have not merely rejected criticism; in the fashion of environmental activists, they have demonized their reasonable critics.

The case of David Henderson and Ian Castles is a good example. Henderson, the former chief economist of the OECD, and Castles, a highly regarded Australian economist, noticed three years ago a serious methodological anomaly in the IPCC's 100-year greenhouse gas emission forecasts, which are the primary input for the computer climate models. Henderson and Castles made a compelling argument that the forecasts were unrealistically high. Everyone recalls the first day of computer science class: garbage in, garbage out. If future greenhouse gas emissions are badly overestimated, then even a perfect computer climate model will spit out a false temperature prediction. If Henderson and Castles are right, it means we may have more time to address even the most alarmist global warming forecasts. Since Henderson and Castles opened the debate, the IPCC's emissions forecasts have been subject to withering criticism from dozens of other reputable economists, including from a number of climate alarmists who, to their credit, argue that this crucial question should be got right.

The IPCC's reaction to Henderson and Castles was startling. The panel issued a vituperative press release blasting the two men for peddling "disinformation." A few scientists and economists connected with the IPCC had the decency to say publicly that the press release was a regrettable error. But it is typical of the increasingly arrogant IPCC leadership. The IPCC's chairman, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, compared Danish eco-skeptic Bjorn Lomborg to Hitler because of Lomborg's wholly sensible and well-founded calculation that near-term emissions reductions make no economic sense. "What is the difference between Lomborg's view of humanity and Hitler's?" Pachauri told a Danish newspaper in 2004. "If you were to accept Lomborg's way of thinking, then maybe what Hitler did was the right thing." It is hard to have much confidence in an organization whose chairman can say this and keep his job. (The reductio ad Hitlerum is contagious: Two weeks ago NASA's James Hansen compared having a Bush political appointee listen in on his media phone calls--an obnoxious but routine practice in the federal government--to Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, eliciting rapturous applause from an audience in New York. And Hansen wonders why people call him an alarmist.)

Moreover, despite the cascade of criticism of the IPCC's emissions forecasts, the same set of forecasts will be used in the next round of climate models, assuring a defective result. The IPCC says it would take too long to do a fresh set of forecasts. Despite the IPCC's wall of resistance, the consensus is coming around to the Castles and Henderson view that the IPCC has done a poor job of handling this important aspect of the issue. Nature magazine, normally aligned with the alarmists, editorialized in January that the IPCC's "macroeconomic assumptions . . . ought really to be discarded as wishful thinking," and criticized the IPCC for not incorporating "economists' latest thinking" in their next assessment.

This is quite a good article on a complex subject at a time when most of the players are more interested in sound bites than in science.
 
Shocking!
Tony Blankley gives a positive review in the Washington Times to a book by Alan Dershowitz! A sample:
To see the difference between traditional Anglo-American criminal jurisprudence and his proposed jurisprudence of prevention, he raises the great maxim of criminal law: better that ten guilty go free, than one innocent be wrongly convicted. That principle led our law to require proof beyond a reasonable doubt before conviction in criminal trials. Most of us agree with that standard.

But then Prof. Dershowitz updates the maxim thusly: "Is it better for ten possibly preventable terrorist attacks to occur than for one possibly innocent suspect to be preventively detained?" I would hunch that most people would not be willing to accept ten September 11th attacks (30,000 dead) in order to protect one innocent suspect from being locked up and questioned for a while.

Quite true.
 
There's an Arab in My Port, OMG!
Dick Meyer has an insiteful commentary about the Dubai World Ports silliness over at CBS News:
Never have I seen a bogus story explode so fast and so far. I thought I was a connoisseur of demagoguery and cheap shots, but the Dubai Ports World saga proves me a piker. With a stunning kinship of cravenness, politicians of all flavors risk trampling each other as they rush to the cameras and microphones to condemn the handover of massive U.S. strategic assets to an Islamic, Arab terrorist-loving enemy.

The only problem -- and I admit it's only a teeny-weeny problem -- is that 90 percent of that story is false.


John Zogby weighs in as well over at the Arab American Institute:
"Of course my community supports any measure that makes our country more secure, including an honest debate about port security," said AAI President James Zogby. "However, this campaign is nothing more than a self-serving use of anti-Arab sentiment callously playing off of post-9/11 fear and insecurity. The rhetorical excesses on the part of those politicians who are most outspoken on this issue has been shameful, irresponsible, and uninformed. Port security will remain the sole responsibility of the US government, but it's an election year, national security remains a legitimate concern, and the UAE is an Arab country, and for some politicians, this represents an opportunity ripe for exploitation.

"The anti-Arab impetus behind these protests is impossible to ignore, certainly doesn't make us safer, and trumps any positive message our public diplomacy efforts seek to portray. The concern we have is that if an ally of the United States like the UAE can be smeared in this manner, simply because it's an Arab country, then our relations with the broader Arab world may be irreparably damaged. It is not just wrong, it is unconscionable for the UAE to be described using language such as a "rogue" government with "ties to Islamic Fascism." Because the challenges we face are global in nature, our national security is served by building strong alliances, not alienating ourselves unwisely."

Do Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer seriously think that the United States should not do business with a staunch ally merely because it happens to be an Arab country? I realize that this thing is making a lot of people uncomfortable, but please--al Qaeda is not taking over the ports! Similarly, if the government can deny contracts to parties solely on the basis of race, I suppose that Senators Clinton and Schumer are now for doing the very same type of racial profiling to individuals at airports. Michelle Malkin thinks so, but she favors it.
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
 
My Apologies
Base10 has been a bit busy these past few days and has not been posting much political stuff. Today promises to be no different. It's a shame too, because there are these good stories going on:

- The UAE US port management deal--surely a tempest in a teapot.

- The Cheney shooting incident--not even a teapot.

- The bombing by Sunnis in Iraq of one of the major Shiite shrines this morning.

- The resignation of Harvard President Larry Summers orchestrated by evil forces of the left.

This is to name just a few.

Anyway, I hope to get back to posting more frequently real soon--possibly by tomorrow.
Sunday, February 19, 2006
 
Results!
Base10 successfully developed a roll of 120 Ilford HP5 this afternoon! Some of the images are here and in the posts that follow. I deliberately chose high contrast subjects to see how the HP5/D-76 developer combination would work. I enjoyed it and I should be able to get another roll or two out of the chemicals. All photos taken with a Mamiya 7ii using a 150mm lens. Base10 is happy with his results. The only thing he messed up was loading the film onto the reel, which admittedly takes a little practice. Also, I have to get a new changing bag since the one I have doesn't have working elastic anymore.



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Development--The Film Kind

Base10 plans to soup some test film tomorrow morning. He mixed his developer, stop bath and fixer and will develop a roll of 120 tomorrow morning. I'll probably expose some images around the neighborhood to work with. I don't want to do anything too good on my first try, but I want good examples of tonal range and contrast. I'm looking forward to it. It gives one an enormous sense of satisfaction to create something from scratch using your own two hands.

Getting this far was an effort in a way. Buying the chemicals was easy of course and Base10 still has to dig up his tank, reels and dark bag from the depths of his closet, but it was the little things that were hard. Base10 went out this morning to buy a graduate and a funnel, two seemingly ubiquitous household items. While I couldn't find a measuring device that was completely suitable, I did find a medicine measuring spoon that perfectly fits the bill. Finding a funnel was not so simple. I tried everywhere, even Sears! No luck until I went to Bed Bath and Beyond where I was forced to buy the premium funnel "set." No matter. Tomorrow is film day. Base10 will post results if the photography gods don't ruin his first efforts.


Saturday, February 18, 2006
 
Remains of the Day
Here are some remaining photos Base10 took a couple of weeks ago in Greenwich Village. Most taken, I think, with Tri-X using the Bessa with various lenses. Enjoy!



img181, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 

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Friday, February 17, 2006
 
Homeward Bound

Base10 is on his way home from work as he writes this. It looks like we made it through another week! What's good for the weekend? Looks like sports, sports and more sports. And photography. Base10 would like to get out tomorrow and take some pictures. He even bought some processing chemicals! Now all he has to do is dig up his reels and tanks and he is set. I figure I'll mix the chemicals tomorrow morning and soup some rolls on Sunday. Base10 is looking forward to it, but I still need to find some equipment.

Anyway, I bought some D-76 and Kodak fixer and stop bath. While this is not exactly what you would call daring in the chemistry department, it does have the virtue of simplicity and familiarity. Remember, this is a learning experience. You don't want to develop that money shot on you first try with the chemicals. Let's start with baby steps.

Anyway, I have a half-liter tank that holds two reels of 35mm or one reel of 120. I have a few rolls of Ilford HP5 that I'd like to try. I think I'll try the first batch at the normal exposure of 400 and the second batch pushed to 800. I could even do four rolls if I use a 1:1 dilution. We'll see how this works out, especially if Mrs. Base10 freaks out over the chemicals.

Anyway, there's still sports. No hockey, of course, unless you count the Olympics where the US has so far made little headway. Saturday promises all-day Olympic coverage and Sunday brings the Daytona 500. All good stuff. In other sports, baseball begins its exhibition season in a few short weeks as well as the first so-called World Baseball Classic.

In Mets news, Pedro Martinez apparently got his new specially made cleats so he will be ready to pitch.

In Jets news, several media sources are reporting that Chad Pennington will be asked to restructure his deal. If he does not, he may be cut. While this would put the Jets in a big hole cap-wise, it may be better to take your medicine early rather than later. Don't get me wrong, I like young Chadwick and I'd love to see him back in his old form, but he's got to prove he can do it. The team stuck by him through some injuries, he should be willing to restructure. If he doesn't, well we've got a new coach and a new GM, why not a new QB, too?

Base10 hasn't been posting too much politics of late. It isn't as if he's not thinking of it, so there will be biting political analysis in this space tomorrow. Or the usual crap.


Thursday, February 16, 2006
 
Munch, Anyone?

Base10 is going to try to get Mrs. Base10 out to the Edvard Munch exhibit over at MOMA. It starts this weekend, so next week is probably a good time. Mrs. Base10 doesn't really care for Munch, but it is apparently the only Munch retrospective in the US in thirty years.


 
Good Morning

After a weekend blizzard temperatures hit fifty yesterday here in Metropolis and are likely to do so again today. But hold on! There's supposed to be another arctic blast this weekend. Brrrr!

Base10's class went well last night. I didn't run out of things to talk about and had a heartfelt discussion about Google and China. All in all, it went well. One of Base10's tasks today is to get the web page up for the class, which I will do on personal time, of course.


 
Most Curious, Captain.

Base10 made a couple of posts be enail yesterday morning as per his usual routine--writing on the train then sending via EVDO and editing at work, if necessary. (Don't tell my boss)! Some of yesterday morning's posts did not make it to the blog until 10:30 last night. What's going on with Blogger? Anyway, if you saw an Olympic post up this morning, I've taken it down for editing. Must...get...new...hosting...


Wednesday, February 15, 2006
 
Melting Away

The snow is melting nicely in Gotham and the weatherman predicts mild weather for the rest of the week. Good. Base10 could use a bit of sunshine. He must admit that between a teachin' and a learnin', he's pretty beat. In any event, Base10 has quite a few things on his plate today. First, Base10 must crunch numbers regarding our response to radio calls of child abuse. Second, Base10 must complete some data entry tasks that he has been putting off. Third, Base10 must do this all in time to leave early so he can prep for teaching his class tonight. It should be okay.

Unfortunately, Base10 can't attend a training class today and tomorrow as he had hoped. But in a way that's better. The course was in the Pennsylvania Hotel and would have doubtlessly led to Base10 walking over to B&H Photo and buying some equiptment.


 
Leica Envy

Base10 visited Photo Village over the weekend to buy a couple of accessories for his Bessa. The nice young man let me fondle hold a Leica MP. Ooooooh, sweet.

Okay, I want one. But I just can't see spending that kind of money on a 35mm film camera. Even the lenses, which are generally considered the best in their class, command a high premium from, say Cosina/Voigtlander lenses which maybe give 99% of the quality at one-third to one-tenth of the price. I think I will get one piece of really good glass, but other than that, I'll stick with the C/V's.

The plus about getting the Leica is that once you buy it, it retains its value in an unbelievable way. Sure, you'll pay the take-it-out-the-door premium, but as long as you don't wreck it, it'll retain about 80% of its value--even more if it's one of the more collectible models. The same goes for the lenses, although it seems the drop-off is steeper. Leica lenses of one or two generations back are downright affordable.

Base10 will keep his readers posted about his decision. Just don't tell Mrs. Base10.


 
Braving the Storm
Here are some of the photographs I took during New York's recent record-breaking snowstorm. All were taken digitally with the EOS 20d using a 70-200 2.8L lens. Enjoy.


bravingthestorm8, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm5

bravingthestorm5, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm6

bravingthestorm6, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm4

bravingthestorm4, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm3

bravingthestorm3, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm7

bravingthestorm7, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm2

bravingthestorm2, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
bravingthestorm1

bravingthestorm1, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
The Doctor is In

Victor Davis Hanson has some predictions for Europe over at RCP:

Here is what we can probably anticipate. First will come a radical departure from past immigration practices. Islam will be praised; the Middle East assured that Europe is tolerant—but very few newcomers from across the Mediterranean let in.

There will be continued public furor over the American efforts in Iraq, but far greater secret efforts to coordinate with the United States—in everything from isolating the Assad regime in Syria to rethinking missile defense. For the past three years the post-colonial Europeans have wished the Americans to learn their imperial lessons by failing in Iraq. Yet it may well be that many in private will now wish us to succeed, if only in the hopes that such Middle East democracies will be less likely in the future to turn loose their mobs to burn European embassies and threaten their citizens.

We won’t see much public condemnation of Hamas, but more likely quiet efforts to pull the plug slowly on subsidies for such terrorists. The Europeans praised Arafat, then learned that he was singularly corrupt. Nothing disturbs a European more than to be swindled and damned as immoral in the process. Subsidies to Jew-hating Hamas terrorists only ensure both.

Europe will still talk about bringing Turkey into the fold of the West, but de facto is horrified at the thought that millions of a religion that empowers so many to go berserk over a few cartoons might soon comprise the most populous nation of Europe. I doubt any European diplomat will invest any political capital at all in restarting in earnest Turkish/European Union talks.

And more:
Because of slated troop withdrawals from European bases, and a new American weariness with the old anti-Americanism, some Europeans are beginning to recoil at the idea that they might well be on their own—and in a war against fanatical enemies that they have appeased and without rational friends that they have estranged.

In response, we may see less of the anti-American rhetoric and a return to the Cold War slogans of a “strong Atlantic Alliance” and “an essential Nato,” as nuclear jihadists replace the fear of 300 Soviet divisions.

So now Europe is being thrust right into the middle of the so-called war against Islamic fascism. Once threatened, it will either react with a newly acquired Churchillian maturity to protect its civilization, or cave, in hopes that even more Chamberlain-type appeasement will satisfy the Islamists.

It should be a fascinating spring ahead.

Indeed, Europe may soon come to its senses. As always, the short quote above doesn't do the good doctor's writing justice. Read the whole thing.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006
 
Good Morning

Base10 is on his way to work on a chilly Tuesday morning. Gotham is digging out from our record breaking snowstorm quite nicely and it is a cold but very sunny morning.

Base10's agenda today involves completing some work tasks that he has been putting off and maybe going up to John Jay for an ID card if he can take time out for an errand. Macroeconomics class is tonight, and Base10 will also try to get a bit of reading done for that class.

Base10 has also been a bit lax in making a website for his charges in John Jay and would like to take care of that tonight as well. All in all, it looks to be a busy day and blogging will be light, although Base10 will try to post more blizzard pictures.


 
Knick Lose Again!

Base10 never was much of a basketball fan--especially the NBA. While college hoops can be quite entertaining, the NBA is downright unwatchable. But nothing warrants a foray into pro basketball more than when the local team reaches new lows. The Knicks lost again last night bringing their current streak to sixteen losses out of their last seventeen games. While Base10 is not sure if they are actually the worst team in basketball, he suspects that if they are not that this dubious honor soon awaits them.

Base10 wonders, is basketball next? The cap in the NFL has made the league the most competitive (and profitable) sports activity in the nation. Last years labor strife in hockey and its ensuing adoption of a hard cap has fundamentally changed for the better the way pro hockey is played. The next obvious candidates in pro sports is basketball.

The only difference in basketball is that it is one of the few sports where individual excellence can carry the day. One man, no matter how talented, can win a football game without plenty of talent around him. Base10 thinks that not fully understanding this truism this is why some fans attribute more credit for a team's success to the quarterback than is really deserve. Basketball, on the other hand, can be won or lost by the performance of an individual player. This is why teams are so anxious to sign talent fresh out of high school.

(Baseball is a little different, but Base10 thinks that they will have to eventually change as well. But that's the subject of a rant for another day).

But there are only so many Lebron James' to go around. NBA owners will realize that they will never be competitive unless there is a cap.


 
Baseball Notes

Pitchers and catchers report this week. Let the games begin.


 
Don't Piss Off Dick Cheney!

Base10 finds the media horde surrounding the Cheney hunting accident story mildly amusing. Why, for example, is the President accused of a cover-up when he wasn't even immediately informed about the incident? This is actually a good example of government transparency. In how many administrations would this incident have come to light at all? Would Clinton have jumped in front of a television camera and bragged that Al Gore shot somebody in the ass? (Well, maybe he would have, given their relationship). The media is apparently angry that no one personally called a reporter from the NY Times or WAPO to leak the information. It's as if the media is trying to show Cheney to be some homicidal maniac and Bush trying to cover it up. Yet another example of the diminished role of the mainmstream media.


Monday, February 13, 2006
 
Once Again, Ahead of the Curve
Base10 wrote this back on January 3rd:
[A] stock analyst from Piper Jafray predicts that Google's share price will top out at $600 a share. Ha! Google closed at $435 today, high enough certainly but who are we kidding here? Google has earnings of about $4.50 per share. Using a long-term discout rate of 5.7% (30 year treasuries) and assuming a long term economic growth rate for the US economy of 2% (not necessarily realistic), the discounted present value of the stream of income from Google's earnings at most could be values at 4.5/(5.7-2) which is about $108. This is the maximum amount Google should be valued at. The problem seems to be that when growth rates approach the discount rate, the projection of future value apporaches infinity. Don't get fooled! The tech bubble has not returned.

Now Reuters says this:
Shares of Web search leader Google Inc. -- off 24 percent from highs set last month -- could face a further 50 percent decline, Barron's said in the financial weekly's February 13 edition.

Barron's scenario for a fall in Google's stock is based on speculating about what may happen if mounting competition or fraud by users of its Google's ad-buying system led to a 20 percent shortfall in bullish analysts' 2006 revenue estimates.

The weekly uses a back-of-the-envelope calculation to show how a 20 percent revenue miss could cascade into a 30 percent profit shortfall. Such a drop could then lead to a decline in the price-to-earnings multiple of the stock to 30 times earnings from the present P/E ratio of 41, it said.

"That would make the stock worth $188, versus its recent $360," Barron's reported. The stock traded at levels above $471 on January 11, but closed at $362.61 on Friday on Nasdaq.

 
Blizzard Aftermath
It looks like Mr. and Mrs. Base10 survived the blizzard of '06. (Now there's a money-making idea for an ambitious person. Go to Target. Buy up as many t-shirts that you can find. Now go to CompUSA and buy t-shirt transfer paper for your printer. Print "I Survived the '06 Blizzard and All I Got Was This Lousy T-Shirt" as many times as you can, apply them to the shirts and sell on a random street corner in Chinatown). Base10 did brae the weather for some shots and will try to post them later.
 
Olympic Update No. 1
Question:

What Would Base10 Say if He Were on a Luge?

Answer:

Ahhhhhhhhhhh!
 
So Long, Michelle
Olympic skater Michelle Kwan announced yesterday that she would withdraw from the Turin Games after taking a fall in practice and apparently aggravating a chronic groin injury. Kwan, who has never won gold, was visibly emotional when she made the announcement. It is likely the last Olympic Games where she will have a shot. Although figure skating is definitely a sport for non-traditional males, Base10 always admired Kwan's grace and beauty as an athlete.
 
Bringing Tort Reform to New Levels
"Cheney shoots lawyer in hunt accident" - Mail and Guardian.
Sunday, February 12, 2006
 
Snowstorm Photo of the Day I

snowstorm1, originally uploaded by base10blog.

Base10 took some photos of the snowstorm this morning. Taken with a Canon EOS20d and the 70-200 f1.8L lens. At least the restaurant's open.


 
Snowstorm Photo of the Day II

snowstorm2, originally uploaded by base10blog.

This is the rooftop across from Base10's house in Queens, NY. It should give some idea of the snow accumulation we've had already and it's before noon. (20d with 70-200 f:1.8L).


 
Snowstorm Photo of the Day III

snowstorm3, originally uploaded by base10blog.

Here's another photo. How would you like to be this guy? (20d with 70-200 f:1.8L).


Saturday, February 11, 2006
 
There's a Storm a Brewin'
Base10 is laying off of politics for today. Mrs. Base10 and I are going into Manhattan since tomorrow, we are likely to be snowed in. Weather forcasts say we could get up to twelve inches. Snow should start this afternoon and go into tomorrow. Later.
 
Jackson Heights Street Photos
These are the remnants of my digital foray into "street photography." Henri Cartier Bresson I am afraid I am not, although I may have gotten a couple of good images.


jacksonheightsstreet13, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet1

jacksonheightsstreet1, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet2

jacksonheightsstreet2, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet3

jacksonheightsstreet3, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet4

jacksonheightsstreet4, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet5

jacksonheightsstreet5, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet6

jacksonheightsstreet6, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet7

jacksonheightsstreet7, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet9

jacksonheightsstreet9, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet8

jacksonheightsstreet8, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet10

jacksonheightsstreet10, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet11

jacksonheightsstreet11, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
jacksonheightsstreet12

jacksonheightsstreet12, originally uploaded by base10blog.


Friday, February 10, 2006
 
Photo of the Day

workday, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
This is Interesting
The Palestinian terrorist group ruling party Hamas has called for calm in the face of the Cartoon wars. Note that Al Jazeera calls Hamas a "Palestinian Resistance Group." Of course, not all Resistance Groups agreed:
As Muslim protests over the cartoons subsided on Thursday, a Taliban commander in Afghanistan warned that 100 fighters had enlisted as suicide bombers and Denmark said it feared for the safety of its troops in Iraq.

Mullah Dadullah, one of the Taliban's most senior military commanders, said his group had also offered a reward of 100kg of gold to anyone who killed people responsible for the drawings.

Of course, these signs of moderation don't mean that Israel gets a pass.
 
Giuliani and Conservatives
Ryan Sager has an interesting observation in the NY Post. He points out that Rudy "America's Mayor" Giuliani is starting to court conservatives. Sager points out that while poll numbers show the G-Man to be a viable presidential candidate in 2008, conservatives are not be flocking to his ultra left-wing stances on social issues. He is therefore courting the right much like Hillary Clinton is.
Is this the start of a thaw in relations between Rudy and the Republican Party's far right?

In the standard analysis, the right sees Giuliani's appeal when it comes to the War on Terror, but finds him utterly unacceptable on social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.). And Paul Weyrich, head of the Free Congress Foundation, one of the top social conservative groups in Washington, tells me, "I don't see any indication of a second hearing."

"Everybody acknowledges the great job he did at the time of 9/11," Weyrich says. But, "There is no chance that he would be viable among the people that I associate with. . . . He has chosen to associate himself with these issues, and they are absolutely non-starters."

Well, Weyrich and other D.C. bigwigs can risk carpal tunnel syndrome as they strain to write off Rudy's chances for the nomination — but the rank-and-file don't seem to be on the same page.

Rudy consistently comes out on top in open-ended surveys asking Republicans who should be their next presidential nominee — and his performance seems to be quite strong with social conservatives.

Last May, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released what it calls a "political typology" survey, breaking down American voters into nine categories. The GOP groups included "Enterprisers" (free-market types), "Social Conservatives" (Bible Belt types) and "Pro-Government Conservatives" (poorer conservatives). Enterprisers gave Rudy a 91 percent favorable rating, and his support only fell to 75 percent among Social Conservatives. And pro-Rudy Social Conservatives were the most intense in their support for him, with 38 percent rating him very favorably.

I don't know if I agree with Sager. I tend to think that in the heat of the day-to-day struggles of a presidential campaign, Giuliani must defend his past liberal stances. Conservatives are not going to flock to him.
 
The Good Doctor Agrees
Victor Davis Hanson has his own take on the Cartoon wars. The good doctor urges that the west rise up to defend its values--at least intellectually:
We are seeing an escalating clash of civilizations — against a tense backdrop of the Iranian government's call for Israel to be wiped off the face of the earth, the election of Hamas terrorists in the Palestinian territories, and Western efforts to protect the new democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq from jihadist bombers.

There is a great asymmetry in all this. Western notions of cultural tolerance and liberality are the benchmarks Muslims employ to condemn insensitive European journalism. Meanwhile, the Islamic Middle East is given a pass, as anti-Semitic state-run papers there daily portray Jews grotesquely.

As the controversy heated up, the word globalization came up a lot, with many banally noting that "we are all interconnected now" — and that what a small newspaper prints in a small country like Denmark can affect the entire world. But that is only half-true.

Globalization is, in fact, mostly a one-way process. Western technology, democracy, freedom, capitalism and popular culture continue to infect the non-West. Once there, they often bulldoze time-honored culture. That resulting clash leads to a radical divergence of perceptions. The cocky West assumes non-Westerners wish to emulate it. They often do, but also soon resent deeply their newfound dependence and appetites for what is often antithetical to traditional life.

Europeans and Americans rarely demonstrate when Jesus Christ, the pope or the Jewish faith is lampooned abroad. In contrast, the insecure and touchy Middle East is hypersensitive about any affront to its religion — or honor. Thus the mere possession of a Bible is felonious in Saudi Arabia, while mosques typically operate without scrutiny in once-Christian Europe.

As usual, a partial quote doesn't do the piece justice. Read the whole thing.
 
Some Advice on Moderates
Charles Krauthammer has something to say about the so-called moderates in the Danish cartoon wars:
Have any of these ``moderates'' ever protested the grotesque caricatures of Christians and, most especially, Jews that are broadcast throughout the Middle East on a daily basis? The sermons on Palestinian TV that refer to Jews as the sons of pigs and monkeys? The Syrian prime-time TV series that shows rabbis slaughtering a gentile boy in order to ritually consume his blood? The 41-part (!) series on Egyptian TV based on that anti-Semitic czarist forgery (and inspiration of the Nazis), ``The Protocols of the Elders of Zion,'' showing the Jews to be engaged in a century-old conspiracy to control the world?

A true Muslim moderate is one who protests desecrations of all faiths. Those who don't are not moderates but hypocrites, opportunists and agents for the rioters, using merely different means to advance the same goal: to impose upon the West, with its traditions of freedom of speech, a set of taboos that is exclusive to the Islamic faith. These are not defenders of religion, but Muslim supremacists trying to force their dictates upon the liberal West.

And these ``moderates'' are aided and abetted by Western ``moderates" who publish pictures of the Virgin Mary covered with elephant dung, and celebrate the ``Piss Christ'' (a crucifix sitting in a jar of urine) as art deserving public subsidy, but are seized with a sudden religious sensitivity when the subject is Muhammad.

Had they not been so hypocritical, one might defend their refusal to republish these cartoons on the grounds that news value can sometimes be trumped by good taste and sensitivity. After all, on grounds of basic decency, American newspapers generally -- and correctly -- do not publish the pictures of dead bodies, whatever their news value.

From RCP.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
 
Good Morning

Base10 is on his way to work on a freezing morning here in Metropolis. In the winter in New York, it seems like you only get two kinds of weather: dry and cold or warm and wet. Today is definitely the former. Base10 also just realized that he left his glasses at home so you can just call him "Squinty" today.


 
Those Who Can, Do

Base10 felt a little better in class last night. Lesson one: talk slower. Lesson two: bring water. Lessson three: write things on the board so you get a chance to rest your throat.

Actually, it went very well last night. Base10 felt more relaxed and thinks he gave a good presentation. He's actually enjoying his new role.


Wednesday, February 08, 2006
 
Bradway Gone!

Several media sources are reporting that Terry Bradway is no longer the Jets GM. Whether this is Bradways's choice, or the Jets owner Woody Johnson's decision is anybody's guess, but Bradway had two years left on his contract and this is not something you walk away from. Base10 thinks that unless the Jets were competitive next year--a somewhat unlikely scenario--Bradway would have been gone anyway.

Replacing Terry Bradway is Mike Tannenbaum, Jets Assistant GM and salary cap guru. Tannenbaum has been with the Jets for nine years, but is only 36, almost the same age as new head coach Eric Mangini.Also, Tannenbaum and Mangini are very close friends. I applaud Woody Johnson's decision. Although Bradway was the guy who should have been launched first, you have to give credit to Johnson for taking a chance on two young guys to run the team. I'm beginning to get psyched for next year!


 
Macroblogging

Base10 actually got a question right in macro class last night. The professor pointed out that the United States has undergone the most spectacular growth in the last ten years--indeed the US economy is growing at a rate that is nearly double its historical average. Why do people think we're in a recession? He asked if we had heard that real wages were stagnant, if not down. Base10 pointed out that while real wages may be down, real compensation has increased--a point he has made here. The professor suggested we get more of our economic news from sources other than the NY Times.

If the Times won't print good economic news, Base10 supposes it is because they can't bring themselves to give any credit to President Bush. Does Bush deserve any credit? Maybe a little for his first term tax cuts. But the growth models that Base10 has seen so far seem to belie the notion that any fiscal policy changes can alter the growth rate. By the same token, does Clinton deserve any credit? Likewise, maybe a little for reducing entitlements and deficit reduction, but this doesn't account for the US's massive growth either.

At least one model suggests that the increased growth rate is due to technological change. Base10 remembers the tech balloon of the mid- to late-eighties and how many argued that we were in a "new economy" where computer technology and the like would result in huge gains in productivity. While many scoffed at this notion when the asset bubble burst, it may very well be true.


 
Good Morning

Base10 is on his way to work this morning as he writes this. It is a chilly morning here in Gotham and and ungodly hour of the morning. Base10 must go in early so he'll have time to take on some administrative tasks over at John Jay before he teaches his class. What he won't do for his youthful charges! Base10 is stuck helping on an emergency project and will likely be doing interviews the rest of this week. Blogging will be light, especially today.


Tuesday, February 07, 2006
 
Were They Going to Use Lions, Too?
"NBC Abandons Plan to Attack Christians With Spears" - Agape Press.
 
Who to Believe?
"Under the Bush administration, there's been a disgraceful and illegal decision-- we're not going to the let the judges or the Congress or anyone else know that we're spying on the American people. And no one knows how many innocent Americans have had their privacy violated under this secret act." - Jimmy Carter, 2006.

"[T]he Attorney General is authorized to approve electronic surveillance to acquire foreign intelligence information without a court order..." - Jimmy Carter, 1978.
 
This is Interesting
At the Gonzales NSA surveillance hearings, a blogger (Powerline) posed some challenging questions for Democratic senators Durbin and Kennedy, something mainstream journalists are wont to do these days. Why is this a big deal? People are starting to wonder why the media doesn't do this.

On the broader issue, if some senators believe that Congress did not authorize the NSA program, why not put the issue to a vote, as Hugh Hewitt suggests?

Via Instapundit.
 
Myths About Iran
Mel Levine, Alex Turkeltaub and Alex Gorbansky have some interesting comments in WAPO about Iran and the efficacy of sanctions:
[W]hile Iran holds the world's second-largest reserves of oil and gas and is the fourth-largest oil producer, it is in fact a net importer of refined oil products, including gasoline. And internal consumption of oil products in Iran is growing by 5.2 percent a year, far faster than its ability to increase refining capacity. This means that the levels of imports necessary to make the Iranian economy function will only increase over time. Thus, sanctions that prevented Iran from importing, say, refined oil products, including gasoline, could bring its economy to a grinding halt. Perhaps more important, the subsequent shortages would disproportionately affect President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political base, the urban underclass and lower-middle class, as well as the military.

I'm not sure if I agree with Levine, et al, but it sure is nice that someone is thinking about what actually would happen in the event of sanctions.
 
The Doctor Asks an Interesting Question
Victor Davis Hanson suggests that Europe, once it wakes up from its myopic denial of the threat from Islamic terrorism, is capable of becoming quite the American ally:
[W]e should remember at least one simple fact: Europe is the embryo of the entire Western military tradition. The new European Union encompasses a population greater than the United States and spans a continent larger than our own territory. It has a greater gross domestic product than that of America and could, in theory, field military forces as disciplined and as well equipped as our own.

It is not the capability but the will power of the Europeans that has been missing in this war so far. But while pundits argue over whether the European demographic crisis, lack of faith, stalled economy, or multiculturalism are at the root of the continent’s impotence, we should never forget that if aroused and pushed, a rearmed and powerful Europe could still be at the side of the United States in joint efforts against the jihadists. And should we ever see a true alliance of such Western powers, the war against the fascists of the Middle East would be simply over in short order.

Let's hope so.

Via RCP.
 
Compare and Contrast
Fouad Ajami in the WSJ:
It was not historical naiveté that had given birth to the Bush administration's campaign for democracy in Arab lands. In truth, it was cruel necessity, for the campaign was born of the terrors of 9/11. America had made a bargain with Arab autocracies, and the bargain had failed. It was young men reared in schools and prisons in the very shadow of these Arab autocracies who came America's way on 9/11. We had been told that it was either the autocracies or the furies of terror. We were awakened to the terrible recognition that the autocracies and the terror were twins, that the rulers in Arab lands were sly men who displaced the furies of their people onto foreign lands and peoples.

This had been the truth that President Bush underscored in his landmark speech to the National Endowment for Democracy on Nov. 6, 2003, proclaiming this prudent Wilsonianism in Arab lands: "Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe, because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty. As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place for stagnation, resentment and violence for export." Nothing in Palestine, nothing that has thus far played out in Iraq, and scant little of what happened in other Arab lands, negates the truth at the heart of this push for democratic reform. The "realists" tell us that this is all doomed, that the laws of gravity in the region will prevail, that autocracy, deeply ingrained in the Arab-Muslim lands, is sure to carry the day. Modern liberalism has joined this smug realism, and driven by an animus toward the American leader waging this campaign for liberty, now asserts the built-in authoritarianism of Arab society.


Robert Kuttner in the Boston Globe:
America was once a universal beacon. Ever since America asserted global leadership in the mid-20th century, people around the world have expressed nothing so much as ambivalence.

They despised the US military might that frequently installed local dictators who served Washington and Wall Street, enriched themselves, and slaughtered domestic opponents; they continued to admire America's internal democracy and vitality.

They hated the economic imperialism that often made their local economies appendages of America's; they liked the consumer products and spread of advanced technologies.

They resented the universal projection of America's pop culture at the expense of their own; they wore the jeans, bought the records, and flocked to the movies.

The most effective of US postwar presidents deftly navigated this complex ambivalence. They maximized what people everywhere like about America -- the openness, the idealism, the dynamism, the support for universal human rights. American presidents sometimes resorted to force, but tried to do so after consultation and consensus. Until lately, global public opinion, on balance, respected America.

Enter George W. Bush. He offered the worst possible combination of strategies -- unilateral swagger, combined with loudly proclaimed promotion of democracy. Should anyone be surprised when the democratic elections produce a string of repudiations? Or that America dare not foment democracy in its faithful despotic allies, Egypt or Saudi Arabia, lest the people vote in two more radically Islamist regimes?

America is still the beacon Mr. Kuttner. President Bush did not create the problem of depotic Arab nations fomenting anti-western terror. It was the "most effective of US postwar presidents" who did that. President Bush is trying to set the game right. And it's only a question of time before Egypt and Saudi Arabia go democratic.
Monday, February 06, 2006
 
Microblogging

Base10 just sat through his Monday night Microeconomic Theory class and "sat through" is sure a good choice of words. Base10's head is spinning.

But on the bright side, his math legs are coming back. It's really not that hard; mathematics is merely symbol manipulation. Learning to manipulate those symbols is pretty straight forward. Learning to think in the fashion that those symbols represent real-life constructs--well that's the hard part. When Base10 first studied economics he had that mathematical mind. Using a law enforcement related example, he could tell you how to use differential equations to figure out the time of death of a homicide victim. (Base10 will save the particulars of that for another post).


 
And the Winner Is...

The Steelers! Base10 didn't think the Super Bowl was all that great. Sloppy play by the Steelers coupled with inneffective Seattle offense plus some--how shall we say--questionable calls against the 'Hawks in the first half all added up to a Steelers victory. I'm not saying they didn't deserve it, but the game wasn't that great.

Particularly bad media coverage: in the aftermath of the awarding of the Lombardi trophy, the hunk of crysstal passed through the hands of Jerome Bettis. He was immediately asked if he was going to retire. Bettis rather touchingly stated that this was probably the last stop for "The Bus." Reporters, please! The guy worked his whole career for a ring. Couldn't you let him savor the moment for five minutes before reminding him that he was at career's end? There would be plenty of time for this stuff on Monday's press conference. Base10 thinks this was a completely horrible was to treat one of the greatest players of our generation and an almost certain first ballot Hall of Famer.

Well, the season is over. Only the Pro Bowl stands between us and six months of football oblivion. Sigh.


Sunday, February 05, 2006
 
Seven Hours to XL
This is it. A few short hours brings us the "Big Game." It's the moment football fans have been waiting for all year. Meanwhile, the line is up to 4 1/2. Base10 is hoping for a good game.

In other football news, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, the late Reggie White and the bloviating John Madden were voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Congratulations to them, although I'm a little surprised Aikman got in on the first ballot. All the inductees are certainly deserving. The most well known candidate that was not inducted was Michael Irvin.
 
Chromogenic Films
Base10 ran two rolls of Kodak chromogenic film through the Bessa. He then brought it to a one-hour lab near work and had film and a photo CD done in an hour for $13. Pretty good, but the film itself is a bit expensive.

That being said, the film is pretty good. While I think it's more contrasty than say Tri-X or HP5 (currently my favorites), the tonal range is excellent. Here are some photos I took on the way to work one morning. The images below are mostly taken with the 15mm ultrawide but some were taken with a 40mm. It's easy to tell the difference. My only complaint about the forty is that it's prone to flare, but that could be because I haven't been using a lens shade.
 
16400022

16400022, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
16400021

16400021, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
16400017

16400017, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
16400024

16400024, originally uploaded by base10blog.


 
16410010

16410010, originally uploaded by base10blog.



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